A Bayesian state-space size-structured population dynamics model for northern hake.
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AuthorsRincón, M. (Margarita); Cerviño, S. (Santiago); Mäntyniemi, S. (Samu); Castro, J. (José); Ruiz, J. (Javier)
In Fisheries research bayesian state-space models have been proved to be very useful because of their capacity to include new data while measuring the uncertainty associated to biological and physical processes. The ECOKNOWS (Effective use of ecosystem and biological knowledge in Fisheries) project proposes to use bayesian analysis in a general population dynamics model GPDM as a powerful tool to include biological and physical information in management strategies. Results of a preliminary Bayesian model adapting this model to northern hake population dynamics are presented here. The model intends to reproduce as far as possible the structure and main assumptions of the current ICES model. Actually there are some parameters with convergence problems but we are developing a new version considering informative priors for the biological processes which are supposed to ameliorate the estimations.