Aplicación de modelos de produciión á xestión de recursos pesqueiros
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Director/esCerviño, S. (Santiago)
Surplus production models (SPMs) were among the assessment methodologies recommended for improve the reliability of stock assessments in data-limited situations, which only require time series of an index of expoitable biomass and catch data. In our study we analyze on two well- known SPMs: SPiCT (A Stochastic surplus Production model in Continuous Time) and ASPIC (A Stock-Production Model Incorporating Covariate), through simulated data which simulates the real dynamic of a fishery system. Different settings have been simulated, testing (1) the intensity of observation errors; (2) fisheries for which available historical data started after the start of the exploitation period; (3) the process error’s impact. A Montecarlo procedure has been used to compute the veracity of the estimated biomass trajectory, parameters and reference points. The derived results are compared to real values of our simulated population through measures such as the root of the mean square error (RMSE) ...