Is it possible to differentiate between environmental and fishery effects on abundance-biomass variation? A case study of blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) in the Strait of Gibraltar
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Gutiérrez-Estrada, J.C. (Juan Carlos); Gil, J. (Juan); Pulido-Calvo, I. (Inmaculada); Czerwinski, Y.A (Yvone Alejandra)Date
2017Type
articleKeywords
autoregressive integrated moving average modelsbiomass time series
computational simulation
North Atlantic Oscillation
overexploitation
sea surface temperature
Abstract
We assessed the potential for simulation and modelling
of the blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo)
population in the Strait of Gibraltar to discriminate
the environmental effects of fishery impacts. A discrete
biomass–abundance dynamic model was implemented
to obtain a simulated monthly time series of
blackspot seabream biomass. On this simulated time
series, autoregressive integrated moving average
(ARIMA) models were fitted. The best ARIMA fit
provided a significant correlation of 0.76 and persistence
index higher than 0.85. The proportion of variance
non-explained by the ARIMA models was
correlated with a time series of sea surface temperature
(SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The
analysis of global, annual and winter correlation
between the proportion of variance not explained by
the ARIMA models and environmental variables
showed that significant associations were not detected
over the full time series. Our analysis therefore suggests
that overexplo ...
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