Cod 3M Projections: risk estimation and inputs
Visitar enlace: Serial No. N6669 NAFO SCR Doc. ...
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AuthorsFernández, C. (Carmen); González-Troncoso, D. (Diana); González-Costas, F. (Fernando); Hvingel, C. (Carsten); Alpoim, R. (Ricardo); Cerviño, S. (Santiago); Mandado, M. (Mónica); Pérez, A. (Alfonso)
The last full assessment for the 3M Cod in the NAFO Scientific Council was carried out in June 2015, giving an advice for two years. Some problems concerning the NAFO 3M cod projections were identified during the 2015 Annual Meeting. Trying to solve these issues, a Workshop was organized by the EU in March 2017. An issue raised by the Fisheries Commission in 2015 is that the risk of exceeding Flim for some of the projection scenarios presented in the assessment was difficult to interpret in light of the overlap in credible intervals of the yields of the various options. To solve this issue, the authors developed a new projection method to perform the 3M cod projections and compute risk, projecting a single catch value instead of a distribution of catches. One of the problems raised by the Scientific Council is how to estimate the inputs to be used in the projections due to the rapid changes in the biology of this stock, especially from 2007. Normally the last three years mean is used ...
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